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Notes on forecasting
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LLMs and Agentic AI Systems for Smart Grids: A Tutorial on Architectures and Applications
This paper discusses how large language models (LLMs) and agentic AI systems are being used in smart grids for tasks like forecasting, optimization, and control. The authors present a design principle called the…
TopoBrick: Agentic Topology Sampling of Exogenous Variables for Zero-Shot Building IoT Forecasting
The paper introduces TopoBrick, a framework for zero-shot forecasting of Internet-of-Things (IoT) data in buildings, which does not require training and takes into account the physical topology, spatial hierarchy, and…
TopoBrick: Agentic Topology Sampling of Exogenous Variables for Zero-Shot Building IoT Forecasting
The paper introduces TopoBrick, a new framework for forecasting IoT data in buildings without requiring training. It uses building knowledge graphs to create a structural skeleton and employs an agentic topology…
When do prophets profit in prediction markets?
Researchers propose a betting strategy that ensures profit when a forecaster's predictions outperform market prices under certain conditions. The strategy is shown to be the only one with such a robust profitability…
Human Capital, Not Model Benchmarks, Predicts Hybrid Intelligence in Forecasting
The study shows that the effectiveness of human-AI collaboration in forecasting depends on specific forms of human capital such as perspective-taking, intellectual humility, and curiosity. Most people either deferred…
Human Capital, Not Model Benchmarks, Predicts Hybrid Intelligence in Forecasting
The study examines the performance of human-AI collaboration in forecasting using real-money prediction markets as a benchmark. It finds that the effectiveness of this collaboration is dependent on a specific type of…
Human Capital, Not Model Benchmarks, Predicts Hybrid Intelligence in Forecasting
A study using real-money prediction market Polymarket finds that the performance of human-AI collaboration in forecasting depends on specific forms of human capital such as perspective-taking, intellectual humility…
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